Risk analyst says mining companies dismiss the prospect of nationalisation at their peril.

(Bloomberg) The ruling party may institute some form of mine nationalisation, a step that could throttle investments in the world’s biggest producer of platinum and chrome, according to a confidential report prepared for mining executives by a risk analyst.

 A drive to seize mines, banks and land is being spearheaded by Julius Malema, 30, who won an uncontested second term as the leader of the youth league of the ruling African National Congress in June. The ANC in November instituted a study into the viability of nationalisation. The findings will be the “key political issue” in party leadership elections in December 2012, Claude Baissac, the Johannesburg-based founder of country- risk consultants Eunomix, wrote in the report.

 “The possibility of the ruling party voting for a major policy shift affecting security of tenure and ownership of the mines is now greater than at any point since the end of apartheid,” Baissac wrote in the report obtained by Bloomberg News. Mining companies “will now dismiss the prospect of nationalisation, whichever form it ultimately takes, at their peril.”

South Africa is the continent’s largest producer of gold, supplies European and Indian power plants with coal and depends on mining for half of exports. In April 2010, Citigroup valued the country’s mineral resources at $2.5 trillion, the most of any nation.

“It is only our policy conference that is going to bring some finality to the matter,” Jackson Mthembu, a spokesman for the ANC, said in an interview from Johannesburg on July 29.

“Studies are being conducted. We can’t therefore jump the gun.” Malema told reporters in Johannesburg on Sunday that the party is studying how to implement nationalization rather than whether to go ahead with the policy.

An ANC vote for nationalisation “would represent the crossing of the Rubicon for both the ANC and for the country,” Baissac wrote. Shares of companies “with a large exposure to South Africa would tumble. Foreign capital would rush out of the country, bringing an immediate collapse of the rand”.

On July 26 2002, shares of Anglo American (JSE:AGL) Plc, the biggest investor in South African mining, plunged as much as 12% after the Mines Ministry said it was considering a proposal that would require mines to be 51% black-owned. The rand declined as much as 1.9% against the dollar.

Dr Hannes Dreyer, the global leader in Wealth Creation, will interview Scott Picken, IPS CEO. Scott Picken has helped over 2000 people invest in international property to a value of R1.6 billion as is the leading expert in South Africa on Offshore Investment and International Property.

What will be covered:

i.              What is happening in global markets?

ii.             5 fundamental risks facing all South Africans

iii.            Why invest offshore?

iv.           Where? USA, UK, Aus, other markets?

v.            Risks and Growth

vi.           Analysis the investment?

Over 80% of people who invest overseas actually loose money for a number of reasons. Learn what you have to know to ensure you don’t join them and you achieve your goals of Wealth Preservation, a Plan B and most importantly Peace of Mind for your family and you.

We won’t leave until all the questions are answered and you have the knowledge and your plan!

·         Date: 24^th May 2011

·         Time: 7pm – 8:30pm (SA time)

·         Price: R250 (first 100 & IPS Gold and Platinum Clients are free)

·         Click here to book - https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/998941203

Dear Potential Offshore Investor

Napoleon said, “Information was nine tenths of any battle.” The challenge is do you have the right information, are you choosing the right partners, making the right investments and most importantly asking the right questions?

1.       Information – like water, the right information makes you finically healthier, but the wrong information is like poison.

a.       80% of people who invest offshore lose money and the investment becomes a tremendous headache in a short space of time! According to Real Estate Web -http://www.realestateweb.co.za/realestateweb/view/realestateweb/en/page206?oid=54920&sn=Detail – you could also make far better returns in South Africa.

b.      The reason for this is that people make decisions without the right information.  Sure the sales person gives them allot of information, but invariably they will give people what they want to hear?

c.       An example of this is in the last few months South Africans have bought $184 million on the Gold Coast in Australia. They think they are getting a real bargain, but when you talk to Richard Dunn, OzInvest Acquisition Manager, a company who spends millions on research, says, “We get offered opportunities on the Gold Coast every day! At the moment we would never offer these to our investors as there are huge vacancies and the property values are in real trouble.” Similar examples are Manchester or Leeds, where South African investors believed they were buying real value (perceived huge discounts) and yet there is huge oversupply, banks are not lending and there are huge rental problems. Do we need to talk about the information presented on Dubai and how that has changed?

d.      The questions you need to be asking:

                                                               i.      “How much do you spend on your research monthly?”

                                                             ii.      “Can you show me how you have communicated this research over the last couple of years, so that I can see you really understand your market?”

                                                            iii.      “Can I see the research from an entity that doesn’t have a vested interest in selling something to me and who substantiates this information?”

                                                           iv.      If someone is based in South Africa – “How often do you travel over to the investment country to understand the market and make sure you are keeping up to speed with current trends?”

2.       Partners – the key to the vault of success!

a.       In life there is a saying, a chain is only as strong as its weakest link.

b.      Investors often underestimate how important the choice in your partner is to your long term success. Dr Dolf DeRoos, the World Famous International Property Investors says, “You are only as strong as your team.”

c.       Many investors invest because they like the salesmen, they have been referred by a friend or they associate with a brand. This can be catastrophic to your success!

d.      The questions you need to be asking:

                                                               i.      “How long have you been helping people invest internationally?”

                                                             ii.      “How many people have you assisted to invest in this specific country?”

                                                            iii.      “Is this your core business, or something which is supplementary to your estate agency business where you help people buy homes?

                                                           iv.      “Are you a property investor yourself and have you bought international property?”

3.       Rentals – the life blood of property investment!

a.       Property Investment fundamentals live and die on cashflow. Experienced property investors understand this and it is why they succeed in all property cycles. Inexperienced investors are always chasing the bargain, and yet often they find a great bargain or focus on capital growth, only to realise there is no rental market. This often destroys the investment and in many instances them financially.

b.      Examples of this are Manchester where you can get 60% discounts but there are 2000 units oversupplied on the market. Dubai which is also at a 60% discount, but has massive oversupply problems (The numerous developers who offered rental guarantees who have gone bust are testament to this). And then Las Vegas which is 70% down, but there are 5000 families leaving a month as tourism is down by 60% and there are 32 000 homes on the market.

c.       If there is one thing you have to be certain on is the rental market and where this demand is going to come from. You need to ask:

                                                               i.       “How can you ensure me of the demand for my property when it is ready to rent?”

·         I am not talking about a 1 or 2 year rental guarantee from the developer, which has often been included in the price. I am talking about me receiving long term sustainable rental income at market related rates from the demand which exists.

                                                             ii.      “Are you prepared to put your money where your mouth is based on this guarantee or assurance?”

·         How would you sustain this long term if you were wrong?

4.       Local & International Offices – geography is so NB!

a.       Many salesmen will travel to South Africa with a suitcase, put on a classy presentation, meet you in a hotel, sign you up, take your money and then leave in a couple of days. This is where all the problems start and you can’t get hold of them or find out what is happening, etc. and this is how a “great investment” (supposedly) turns into a lemon.

b.      To be successful you need to ensure the partner you choose to invest with, not only has offices in the foreign country, but also offices and a physical presence in South Africa. It makes such a difference when you can speak to a local South African on the phone, on the same time scales and if needs be come and see them in their office whenever it suits you.

c.       Questions you need to be asking:

                                                               i.      “Where are you offices in South Africa and in the country I am investing in?”

                                                             ii.      “If you don’t have offices in South Africa, how can I ensure that you will still be here in a couple of months or years when I need help with the investment I have bought?”

                                                            iii.      “I would like to visit the property. Who is going to show me around overseas?”

                                                           iv.      “How do you understand the market unless you have someone who is permanently looking for opportunities and living in the property market?”

5.       After Sales Support – the helping hand you need! Trust me!

a.       Most investors only focus on the purchase of the property and they forget how important it is to manage the sale. Salesmen are also only interested in closing the sale, but most importantly not to help you right through the process, when you are investing from afar. Many companies claim to provide the full service to you, but where are they based and how are they going to do it?

b.      Questions which you need to ask:

                                                              i.      “How big is your aftersales team and who will be assisting me personally making sure the property transfers timeously into my name?”

·         Sorry I am not talking about the salesmen, I want an Aftersales Professional who has been dealing in this for many years and understands the nuances between South African property and overseas property.

                                                             ii.      “What happens when the property is ready? Who will be assisting me with transfer of the property, inspections, etc?”

                                                            iii.      “Can I see referrals from people who were happy with your service?”

With these simple questions you can ensure you don’t buy lemons and you can take advantage of the significant opportunities. It is not only wise it is prudent to invest some of your wealth in foreign markets. In the Real Estate article above it talks of the tremendous opportunities locally. We completely agree with this and continue to make great money in South Africa, through the use of strategic partners as they suggest. However once you have made this money, it is essential, if not irresponsible not to, to take some of this wealth and invest overseas. To achieve your goals of Asset Preservation, Capital Growth, a Rand Hedge, Diversification and Positive Cashflow in first world currencies – you need the right information and partners and most importantly to be asking the right questions!

Good luck!

Scott Picken

IPS CEO

www.ipsinvest.com

GRANT ROBERTSON

Just as it seemed the U.S. housing crisis couldn’t get any worse, the largest bank in the United States is halting all sales of foreclosed houses as of this weekend, amid growing allegations that lenders have improperly seized hundreds of thousands of American homes.

The decision by Bank of America on Friday could grind a significant portion of the real estate market to a halt in the next few months. It comes after legal questions were raised about the automated processes bankers in the United States have used to handle the unprecedented number of foreclosures taking place.

Lawyers representing foreclosed homeowners argue that so-called “robo-signers,” people employed by the banks to process piles of paperwork, can’t possibly verify all the information contained in the documents, given the speed at which the foreclosures are being filed. Further, since so many of the mortgages offered in the U.S. are securitized and not held by the original lender, some of the cases lack sufficient proof of which bank actually owns the rights to the home. They allege this has led to improper seizures.

Those legal technicalities have the potential to reverse some foreclosures if the documents are proven to be incomplete or inaccurate. But the implications of this latest storm are much broader.

The freeze now threatens to chill parts of the U.S. real estate market as buyers and sellers of distressed homes wait for the banks to sort out the paperwork problem and verify documents, leaving all sides in limbo. Real estate agents in several states began pulling foreclosed homes off the market Friday, according to reports from across the U.S.

In the past two weeks, Bank of America had already frozen sales of foreclosed homes in 23 states, where court approvals are needed to process seizures. But in a short statement Friday that sent ripples through the U.S. housing and banking sectors, Bank of America said it is extending the review of documents to all 50 states starting today, pending a review.

“We will stop foreclosure sales until our assessment has been satisfactorily completed,” the bank said in a statement, adding: “Our ongoing assessment shows the basis for our past foreclosure decisions is accurate. We continue to serve the interests of our customers, investors and communities.”

Other major banks could follow suit with a nationwide halt. PNC Financial, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Ally Financial Inc. have also introduced a freeze in 23 states, to verify the accuracy of documents, but have yet to make it national. No allegations have been proven.

“They’ve got these robo-signers who are signing things without reading them – not just any documents, but official court affidavits that are under oath and say I have read this and I vouch for everything that’s in here,” said Tom Ice, a foreclosure defence lawyer in Florida.

Mr. Ice’s Palm Beach law firm Ice Legal P.A. is a key player in the drama, having secured pivotal depositions from bank officials who admitted under oath that they could not verify all of the foreclosure documents being filed. Mr. Ice alleges that about 71 per cent of his cases involve discrepancies in the paperwork over who owns the loan, and therefore raises questions about who holds the right to foreclose.

Mr. Ice has about 400 active cases involving suspected improper foreclosures in Florida, including a small number involving Canadian owners who own properties in the state. A record 1.2 million homes were expected to be seized by U.S. banks this year, up from one million a year go. In South Florida alone, including Miami and Palm Beach, there have been an average of 150 foreclosure filings a day since the summer.

“There are tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of these,” Mr. Ice said, predicting the banks face a lengthy review. “... It took years when they weren’t looking at the numbers. It’s impossible to do in a few weeks.”

The banks aren’t necessarily conceding that their paperwork isn’t valid, just that it needs to be rechecked. The mortgage group of Citibank is not freezing its foreclosure sales, and said it is confident all paperwork is within the law and does not contain mistakes. For its part, Bank of America isn’t halting all foreclosure operations. It is still issuing notices to delinquent borrowers who miss payments, and making efforts to renegotiate terms.

The crux of the matter is not whether home seizures are being executed on people who have paid their bills – though there have been some mistaken cases of that – but at what point a legal foreclosure can take place.

In the rush to process the mountains of paperwork, some banks are allegedly moving to seize homes too quickly, argues St. Petersburg foreclosure lawyer Matt Weidner. One of his cases involves a bank that sent foreclosure agents to a woman’s home to change her locks, even though she was only a few months in arrears. She called 911 when they entered her home.

Mr. Weidner argues that with proper diligence by the bank, the woman probably wouldn’t have been foreclosed upon so quickly, since the bank would have likely made out better by renegotiating her mortgage. But the sheer workload at the financial institutions – processing 8,000 a month in some instances – is creating such situations.

“It’s the wild west down here, and it’s getting worse,” Mr. Weidner said. “These documents are being used to take people’s houses.” He added that there may not be buyers for the homes. “Let’s say they granted every one of those foreclosures tomorrow. Who would move into those houses?”

After the housing crisis began more than two years ago – fuelled by subprime lending that gave mortgages to lenders who ultimately proved incapable of paying the money back, particularly as house values fell – financial institutions are trying to recover as much asset value as possible. From Arizona to Michigan, foreclosed homes have been liquidated at a fraction of the original price.

The widespread foreclosures have created other problems. Renters booking holiday properties now face a buyer-beware market too. A couple from Kingston, Ont. who rented a Punta Gorda, Fla., home for a March vacation came home from the beach to find the house had been seized, and their belongings were missing.

The couple, who asked that their names not be used, are still seeking to recover items such as a laptop computer. Mr. Weidner’s firm is representing the owner, who was delinquent. But the Canadian couple believes the ordeal is a lesson to other renters, since they were not warned about the problems before they rented.

Posted on Tuesday, December 29, 2009, 12:00AM

“It was the best of times. It was the worst of times.” 
­ – Charles Dickens

Is the recession over? Are happy days really here again? Paraphrasing Dickens, my answer is, “For people who are prepared, 2010 will be the best of times. For many, 2010 will be the worst of times.”

The following are a few of my predictions and reasons behind them…

Prediction #1:  The real estate market will crash again.

Pictured above is a graph of mortgage resets. In simple terms, a mortgage reset is when a mortgage comes due. In normal times, refinancing was a simple process…but these are not normal times. Some points of interest:

1.  In September 2008, the mortgage resets hit $35 billion that month. That was the exact time the financial crisis hit. When people could not afford to refinance and began to default, the stock market and banking industry crashed. 

2.  The eye of the storm: In the summer of 2009 mortgage resets were low -- around $15 billion a month. This is when optimists began to see “green shoots” in the economy. The green shoots were the eye of the storm.  In 2010, as I see it, the second half of the financial hurricane hits. By late 2011, the resets climb to nearly $40 billion a month. The storm will not end until 2012.

3.  The first half of the storm was primarily due to subprime defaults. The second half of the storm will hit more solid homeowners. The question is, can they weather the storm? Will Mac Mansion foreclosures be next?

4.  In America, there are over 40 million people who own more than two homes. Can they afford to carry and refinance two or more mortgages?

5.  Since home values have gone down, many homeowners will find they owe more than their home(s) are worth. Will the bank be kind to them?

6.  The time for using your home as an ATM is over. This is crushing retailers and retail real estate. Shopping centers are in trouble. Strip malls are emptying as shopkeepers close -- permanently. This will lead to the crash of the office, warehouse, and other commercial properties.

My prediction:  Obviously these are the best of times if you are a buyer of distressed properties and the worst of times if you are a seller.

Other things I am watching for in 2010:

1. Will China crash? America’s crash has hit China in the gut. The Chinese are laying off millions of workers. Only massive government bailout is keeping the economy afloat. The Chinese boom will eventually go bust…but will it bust in 2010? Only time will tell.

2.  When America stopped importing from China, China stopped importing from the rest of the world. This affects Asian countries as well as Australia, Brazil, and other suppliers of raw materials.

3.  Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is replacing toxic debt with new debt. By protecting his friends in the mega-banks, he is turning the U.S. into a zombie nation. The recession is over, but America is entering an era we will be calling The New Depression, a period when the rich become extremely rich but everyone else becomes poorer. Taxes will kill anyone working for a paycheck.

4.  The U.S. dollar will grow weaker. If the dollar strengthens, we will have more unemployment because our goods become too expensive and we will export less. 

5.  The deficit will increase.  The bailouts for the rich are killing the economy.

6.  Israel may attack Iran. Israel will not tolerate Iran developing nuclear power, even if Iran claims it is for peaceful purposes. If there is an attack, oil prices will go through the roof. 

7.  Dead cat bounce. The current stock market rally will probably turn into a dead cat bounce. If the Dow drops below 6500, 5,000 may be the next stop.

The Best of Times

I know I sound painfully pessimistic. I know my predictions are bad news for most people. Yet, for others, bad news is good news.

The following are the bright spots for people who are prepared.

Prediction #2: Gold, silver, and oil will continue to be safe investments in 2010.

The following recaps the year-end prices of gold and silver:

            YEAR             GOLD                                    SILVER
            2000               $  273                         $  4.57
            2001               $  279                         $  4.57
            2002               $  348                         $  4.78                       
            2003               $  416                         $  5.92
            2004               $  438                         $  6.79
            2005               $  518                         $  8.80
            2006               $  638                        $12.78
            2007               $  838                        $14.77
            2008               $  882                        $11.33
            2009              $1100  (approx)     $17.50  (approx)

In 2009, the Dow rose approximately 18%. Gold rose approximately 25%. Silver rose approximately 50%. 

By the end of 2010, I predict gold will be at $1,775 an ounce, silver at $24 an ounce, and oil at $85 a barrel. If Israel attacks Iran, these predictions will be blown away.

Prediction #3: The next market to crash will be commercial real estate.

Cash flow positive real estate will be even more affordable. 2010 through 2012 will be a real estate buffet for those with cash and access to credit.

My Personal Investments

As I stated in 2002, “You have up to the year 2010 to become prepared.”

The following are things I have done to prepare myself:

1. I started The Rich Dad Company in 1997 because I saw this crisis coming. For the past three years, I have tightened internal controls and prepared for global expansion via a franchise distribution system. The company is debt free with strong income. 

2.  2009 was my best real estate year to date. With the Fed handing out large sums of money and pension funds looking for projects to invest in, my real estate holding company has acquired tens of millions of dollars for acquisition of bankrupt properties and development projects.  Development projects are affordable again, as labor, material, and land costs are low and the government is generous with 40-year, low interest, non-recourse loans. People still need a roof over their heads.

3.  My oil development projects have done well. We drilled three wells and hit oil on two of them. Government tax breaks for oil exploration remain generous, even for dry holes.  Even if the economy crashes, we will still burn oil.

4.  I took 90% of my money out of the stock market in 2007. If the Fed raises interest rates, the stock market and real estate market will collapse.

5.  I loaded up on gold and silver between 1996 and 2004.

6.  With the Fed printing trillions of dollars, cash is trash and savers are losers. As soon as I have excess cash I invest in oil, real estate, gold, and silver.

7.  In a zero-interest-rate environment, debtors are winners…but only if you have good debt…debt that’s paid by tenants.

In Conclusion

A few years ago, Japan was ‘King of the Financial World.’ Japan’s economy was the world’s second largest economy -- till the bubble burst in 1990.  Japan’s budget went into deficit in 1993. Since then, the deficit has averaged 5.4 percent of GDP per year. As a result, Japanese government debt is now 200 percentof GDP today. The U.S. is following Japan, and China will follow the U.S.

We will not see much inflation because the Fed is not able to print enough money to replace the losses from the burst of the credit bubble. Also, factories have too much excess capacity due to lack of demand, which means prices for consumer goods will remain low and unemployment will remain high. Instead, we will see inflation in gold, silver, oil, some stocks, some real estate sectors, and food -- not because values are going up but because the dollar is going down.

Welcome to The New Depression. And may these times be the best of times for you.      

International Property Solutions (IPS) is looking for the best 3 sales people in South Africa. Please do not reply to this opportunity unless you are the best!

Although there are challenges in both the local and the international property markets, IPS has some fantastic and exciting opportunities and thus more demand than we can handle. Depending on your ability, the range you can earn:

• Average performer = R30 000 a month
• Great performer = over R200 000 a month or more!

Young or Old if you have the stuff we will know.

Location not a problem – ability is what we are looking for. Most importantly is the ability to work with High Networth Individuals and even better is if you have your own network!

Either Full time, or if you have your own company, we can become strategic partners!

If you are interested, please email to thembi@ipsinvest.com. Please tell me why should we choose you & why you are the best

This is what you can expect:

Value to you – 10 Items which are vital to your future!

1. Ability to earn foreign income.
2. Ability for great cashflow.
3. Ability to grow your international business part time, while running your successful business.
4. Ability to provide real value to your clients and offer them a differentiated product which they want.
5. Ability to learn the latest trends in property. South Africa is directly affected by what is happening international and this will position you as a market leader when you can speak with you clients with experience about the global market and how it will affect them locally.
6. Ability to learn the latest techniques being used internationally to provide your client with the best service and therefore get the most profitable use of your time (make more sales).
7. Ability to learn the latest techniques and methods to get the maximum returns from your Internet, Google, your website, email and social networking strategies.
8. Ability to be part of an International Network which provides you with credibility, but also the benefit of using it for securing local mandates.
9. Ability to be part of the International Network where you will be able to benefit from the mutual partnerships, constant information sessions for your clients and quarterly and yearly events to keep you abreast with the latest international trends. This will ensure you remain the leader in your industry.
10. Ability to remain being the Number One Player in your market and take your business to the next level!

Key Benefits of the International Training Academy

Scott Picken, IPS CEO, is constantly travelling the world and attending courses to understand the latest trends and techniques. On his latest course in USA, there was an intensive 4 day course (60 hours and a cost of R150 000) from 12 of America’s Leading Businessman on how to deal with the current market, take advantage of it and grow your business by 300% in 2010! Scott wants to try and share everything he learnt and some of these are:

1. Vision – what do you ultimately want for your business?
2. What season are you in?
3. The life cycle of business – how to get to the next level?
4. Power of Strategic Innovation
5. 3 ways to grow your business
a. New methods for marketing in the 21st century
b. New ways to get clients to take action
6. Defining your business process
7. 12 skills of all great companies
8. Direction of Influence – the Rugby Field Communication Model
9. 7 steps for implementing everything in your business
a. RPM
b. Your master action plan to implement

Please also pass onto to anyone who you think would relish this opportunity.

I look forward to working with the best.

Scott Picken
IPS CEO